Kristen's Oscar Picks 2025

Right or wrong, here's who I think is taking home a statue

Feb 28, 2025

The Oscars are Sunday — and we’ll be doing a subscriber chat during the whole event which you should join at 4pm PST — and that means I finally have to decide who I think is taking the whole thing home. I’m gonna say I’m not great with predictions. I do a ton of research and there are always one or two awards where I just go on my gut and, sometimes, I’m right. Colleen Atwood’s Oscar win for Best Costume for Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them in 2016 came from me just thinking Colin Farrell’s coat game deserved it. Turned out to be a good choice on both mine and the Academy’s part. This is all to say, if you lose your Oscar pool come Monday do not send me angry emails.

So, let’s put 2024 to bed, officially, with my Oscar picks for this year!

To save time I’m only focusing on the biggest awards. The rest I’ll be throwing out live during the ceremony.

Best Picture

This year’s Best Picture lineup has been interesting as there’s been two very clear favorites (Anora and Conclave) and then everyone else championing individual titles like The Brutalist, I’m Still Here, etc. There hasn’t been one steamrolling feature. Even Anora has only really ramped up over the last month or so. So I’m really torn between what I think is going to win. Anora is the little indie darling that could and most people, overall, love it. It’s had consistent support from its festival run.

But then there’s Conclave which had a strong box office showing and, despite not having a Best Director nomination (which still seems ridiculous), is the exact route winners like Argo, Green Book and CODA went through and won. Now, all three of those movies had backlash and issues which says something. In the end, I’ll be happy with either winning because I love them both. But, having to choose, I’m going purely on gut and saying Conclave if only because 54% of Academy voters are still over 60.

Will Win: Conclave

Best Director

Even though I have Conclave listed up there, indicative of a split, I think this is Sean Baker’s to lose no matter what.

Will Win: Sean Baker, Anora

Best Lead Actor

This year has been so chaotic I keep dreaming of Sebastian Stan winning for playing Trump just because it would make sense in 2025. But, in all honesty, I do think this one doesn’t seem as locked up as people think. The obvious choice is Adrien Brody for Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist and considering he’s won all the precursor awards he stands the best chance. But then there’s Timothee Chalamet for cosplaying Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown (sorry, never gonna like the movie). The Ramy Malek effect can be felt here, though Malek had more momentum playing Freddie Mercury, and playing a musician isn’t a full-proof Oscar win, though it helps. I don’t know, am I the only one thinking upset? I’m gonna play it safe but if I’m right….

Will Win: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Best Lead Actress

Dem-i! Dem-i! Dem-i! Mikey Madison is my girl but Demi has this in the bag. If she doesn’t win we riot at dawn!

Will Win: Demi Moore, The Substance

Best Supporting Actor

This is another foregone conclusion and, I don’t know, kinda wish anyone else would win in this category. I never reviewed A Real Pain when I saw it because I did not like it at all, one of the few times I’ve despised a movie that I’ve seen nearly everyone love. Kieran Culkin is fine in the role but….congrats to him.

Will Win: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

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Best Supporting Actress

I still think Isabella Rosselini can eke out a win here for Conclave. She has a great Oscar story — don’t be fooled, the Academy loves a narrative — and her legacy puts her win in the same world as Jamie Lee Curtis for Everything Everywhere All at Once. The distinction is Curtis had more momentum and precursor love than Isabella. Zoe Saldana, for Emilia Perez, has won every single precursor and her not winning this would be a serious upset. But while Netflix worked hard to keep the Emilia Perez/Karla Sofia Gascon taint away from her, could it be too big to fail? Again, playing this one safe but I could see this going off the rails.

Will Win: Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

Best Original Screenplay

I love the script category because it can either imply what will win Best Picture or just be a big win for a movie that goes home with little or nothing. I’m gonna say, though, that this is another score for Anora.

Will Win: Anora

Best Adapted Screenplay

If I ever get another straightforward edition of But Have You Read the Book? greenlit you can bet I’ll have Conclave in it. Oh, and it’s definitely winning here.